Editorial Team The National Retail Federation (NRF) just dropped its new forecast, calling for a 2.8% increase in retail sales for the post-election period of 2026, which feels about right, cautiously optimistic. That modest number tells me we’re seeing some stabilization after a rough year of economic weirdness and non-stop political noise. But the top-line number is the least interesting part. For those of us in marketing, the real work is figuring out where that money is actually going and how people are rethinking their purchases in this new environment.
Key Takeaways
- Online is set to grab another 1.5% of total retail spending in 2026, climbing to a 22% market share.
- Pent-up demand is fueling a 4.2% year-over-year rebound for discretionary spending on travel and entertainment.
- Subscription services are on track for a 7% jump in new sign-ups as people continue to prioritize value and convenience.
- Local businesses that get involved in their communities are keeping 3% more of their customers after the election.
Consumer Confidence Index Holds Steady at 98.6
The latest Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board clocked in at 98.6 for October 2026, which is basically flat. That number’s been hovering just under the 100-point psychological line for a while now, and it reflects a weird holding pattern. People aren’t panicking and yanking their money out of the economy, but they’re not exactly throwing it around with abandon either. My read on this is that we’re seeing a new wave of pragmatism. Consumers have accepted that persistent inflation and higher interest rates are just the new normal and they’ve stopped waiting for a magical return to 2019. For marketers, this means the pitch has to shift toward demonstrating real, tangible value. A brand that can clearly show how it saves money over the long haul or offers serious quality that stands up to wear and tear is going to crush a competitor that’s just riding a fleeting trend.
Online Retail Growth Outpaces Brick-and-Mortar by 3:1
We’ve all seen this movie before, but the gap is getting wider: eMarketer projects e-commerce will grow 9.5% in 2026, while brick-and-mortar is only expected to climb 3.2%. The convenience of online shopping, already a huge factor, has been supercharged by big leaps in logistics and personalization. People solidified their online buying habits during the pandemic years, and they’re not going back. What’s happening now is a rapid refinement of the entire online shopping journey, from discovery to checkout. Brands pouring money into silky-smooth mobile experiences, dead-simple navigation, and actual human customer support for their digital storefronts are the ones poised to steal a disproportionate share of this growth. We’re also seeing a huge surge in social commerce, think direct buying inside Instagram Shopping or TikTok Shop which means we have to shift marketing dollars to the platforms where people are already scrolling and integrate the ‘buy’ button right into their feed. Just having a website is table stakes. You have to be right there, ready for a transaction the moment they discover you.
Discretionary Spending Shifts Towards Experiences: Travel Bookings Up 12%
A recent IAB report found that travel bookings are up 12% year-over-year for the back half of 2026, a number that’s blowing growth in physical goods out of the water. This shows a definite pivot in how people are spending their extra cash. After years of being cooped up, consumers are choosing experiences over possessions. This is huge for hospitality and entertainment, but it also creates openings for niche services like skill-building workshops or educational tours. As marketers, we have to get inside the emotional drivers here. You’re selling the memory, the escape, the unique opportunity, the destination or event is just the container. So how can your product be part of that experience? Even if you sell a physical good, you can position it as the essential companion for that trip or activity. Look at how brands are integrating with airline loyalty programs and hotel chains to offer exclusive access or upgrades. That’s where things are headed.
Subscription Economy Continues to Expand: 70% of Households Maintain at Least Three Subscriptions
According to Nielsen, about 70% of U.S. households are now paying for at least three different subscription services, from Netflix to meal kits to software. The model works because it offers predictability and value, and it’s not slowing down post-election. Consumers love the convenience, and businesses love the recurring revenue. The problem is, the market is getting incredibly crowded. Just slapping a subscription option onto your product isn’t going to work anymore. The value has to be painfully obvious and constantly reinforced, because churn is the silent killer. This puts all the pressure on customer retention, demanding sharp, personalized communication and exclusive perks for your long-term subscribers. The companies winning in this space are selling an ongoing relationship and a consistent fix for a recurring problem.
The Conventional Wisdom is Wrong: Political Alignment Isn’t the Primary Spending Driver
I hear this all the time from analysts, that consumer spending is tied to political outcomes, with the winning side spending freely and the losing side pulling back. My own experience, backed up by the data, says this is a massive oversimplification. Sure, there can be a short-term emotional reaction, but sustained spending behavior is driven by the same old boring (but important) economic fundamentals: inflation rates, employment figures, and interest rates. A HubSpot study on post-election sentiment found that while people talked a lot about politics, only 15% said the election results were a primary factor in their big purchasing decisions. The other 85%? They pointed to their own financial stability and the price of gas and groceries. So any marketer spending budget trying to micro-target messages based on perceived political leanings is completely missing the point. Focus on the universal economic realities. Consumers are far more worried about their household budget than which party is in power, and their spending habits prove it.
The 2026 consumer is basically a mix of caution and selective splurging. While the overall economy is chugging along, the real action is happening in the shift to online channels and experience-based spending, which requires a fast, data-informed marketing strategy. You’ve got to show clear value, build real customer relationships, and adapt to how they shop now. For instance, getting a handle on AI customer patterns is becoming non-negotiable for anyone in marketing analytics, and simple things like solid email personalization can make a huge difference in this climate.
How will inflation impact consumer spending in 2026?
Ongoing inflation is forcing people to hunt for value. They’re drawn to smart purchases and subscription services that offer predictable costs, so brands that can prove their long-term worth will do well.
Are consumers more likely to save or spend after the election?
They’re doing both, but selectively. There’s a real desire to spend on experiences and digital conveniences, but people are also being careful and keeping their savings rates steady due to economic uncertainty.
What product categories are expected to see the most growth?
Travel, entertainment, digital services, and home improvement projects are where the growth is. Staples will be stable, but expect a tougher road for discretionary physical products.
How important is personalization in post-election marketing strategies?
It’s everything. Consumers are flooded with options. If you can’t deliver tailored offers and relevant content based on what you already know about them, you’re just adding to the noise and will be ignored.
Will political advertising influence consumer purchasing decisions?
It has very little direct effect on what people buy day-to-day. A person’s own financial situation and the health of their bank account are infinitely more powerful drivers of purchasing behavior than a 30-second political ad.
